Yesterday , billionaire tech enterpriser andnoted late guyElon Musk unveiled his heatedly - prognosticate plan tosend humans to live — and croak — on Mars . And not just a few humans : a raft of them . In a talk that wavered between outwit scientific discipline fairish presentation and straight - up skill fiction , Musk described sending fleets of ballistic capsule , each pack hundreds of colonists , to live on a dusty , airless wasteland that we ’re apparently going to fix up with nuclear reactors and artificial magnetic field of honor .
It ’s well-to-do to disregard most of what Musk outlined as piffling more than a rich dude ’s pipage dream . We ascertain a destiny of beautiful rocket renderings , along with some staggeringly generous estimates regarding the cost of a ticket to Mars . ( “ penny-pinching to the median home price in the US ! ” ) But when it came to grueling deadlines , or concrete steps toward attain our interplanetary immigration , Musk ’s opus was thin . Most significantly , we have no idea who is kick the bucket to pay for all of this .
Here ’s what we do know : SpaceX ’s unforesightful term goal , of send robotlike landers to Mars within the next few years , is emphatically doable . We also know that the Interplanetary Transport System Musk outlined yesterday will not will materialize without an enormous amount of financial and technical support from the international community .
“ I consider it ’s dead executable that [ SpaceX ] will land a Dragon abridgment on Mars either in 2018 or 2020 , ” Bobby Braun , a prof of place engineering science at the Georgia Institute of Technology told Gizmodo .
As SpaceX first announced in April , it destine to part flying uncrewed “ Red Dragon ” missions to Mars begin late 2018 . These missions will lie in of a Falcon Heavy Eruca vesicaria sativa — a soup - up version of the Falcon 9 , which SpaceX plans to debut next twelvemonth — and a Dragon-2 robotic capsule , whose engineering builds off the man - rat Dragon capsule SpaceX is developing under NASA ’s Commercial Crew Program .
“ The plan is to post a Dragon-2 to Mars in a few years , and then another in 2020 , ” Musk pronounce during his public lecture yesterday . “ We want to lay down a steady cadence , with every Mars rendezvous , ” he total , referring to the launching window that occurs every 26 calendar month , when the distance between Earth and Mars is at its lower limit .
A critical goal of the Red Dragon missions will be to prove and complicate propulsive landing place engineering for entering Mars ’ atmosphere , descend , and advert down lightly . All robotlike missions to the control surface of Mars so far have trust on parachutes to slow their descent through the atmosphere , but the Dragon-2 is going to be the heaviest human - made objective to touch the Red Planet by a wide gross profit — and that means it ’ll need beefier brakes . No doubt , SpaceX intends for the this propellant brake engineering science to feed forward into more challenging , crewed commission to Mars , which , based on some of the details we heard yesterday , will feature ballistic capsule that are utterly enormous by forward-looking standard .
It is n’t clear how many uncrewed Red Dragon missions SpaceX hope to fly to Mars , nor is it exculpated how much these interplanetary mental testing - run will be . In July , Jim Reuter , deputy associate administrator for programs in NASA ’s space technology deputation directorate , told Space Policy Newsthat he estimate SpaceX will be spend some $ 300 million on the program .
NASA will also be making a contribution to the Red Dragon missions , mainly in the form of engineering consulting , which Reuter has valued at or so $ 32 million Charles Frederick Worth of meter over four years . In central for advice and communications support during SpaceX ’s robotlike missions to Mars , the space federal agency will be secret to precious flying data gather up during the Dragon-2 ’s entry , declension , and landing place — data that it will likely need to inform its own strategy for getting boots on the Red Planet ’s surface in the 2030s .
At this point , nothing about the timetable or toll of the Red Dragon missionary station seem prohibitive — adopt SpaceX get back on its metrical unit from thelatest detonation disaster soon , it might even make the 2018 launching window . “ It ’s certainly technically practicable — anyone who has enough money can send something to Mars , ” a aged administrator in the aerospace industry who choose not to be quoted by name articulate .
But make the jump from small , robotic lander , to an “ Interplanetary Transport System ” equal to of station thousand of human settlers to the Red Planet is not going to be easy or cheap . That latter organisation , which couple a gigantic rocket with an equally imposing spaceship capable of carrying “ 100 passengers at least ” in sane solace , was the focus of Musk ’s talk yesterday . As he freely acknowledged , it might not occur .
“ Obviously it ’s going to be a challenge to fund this whole effort , ” Musk said . “ decent now we ’re strain to make as much advance with the resources we have , and keep move forward . ”
If we had any doubtfulness that SpaceX , and really , Musk ’s intact career , has been a lead - up to this vision , those were laid to rest yesterday . Not only is the billionaire enumerate on his Eruca sativa caller ’s next pay — “ plunge satellite and servicing the blank station”—to fund human beings ’s cosmic diaspora , the electric car salesman himself apparently does n’t have “ any other motivation for personally accumulate assets . ”
But even if Musk throws his entire nett worth into build thelargest rocket ever — a 12 meter - diameter booster , 17 meter diam spaceship , and 122 cadence grandiloquent stack — it ’s hard to imagine that will be enough for more than a single prototype . He needs assistant , either from venture capitalist or government place agencies . NASA would be an obvious partner , but so far , the infinite delegacy has not give any indication that it ’s going to sustain Musk ’s martian colonial ambition , in any mode other than kind thoughts , prayers , laughter , and tear .
“ NASA applauds all those who want to take the next giant saltation — and advance the journey to Mars , ” a NASA voice say Gizmodo in an electronic mail . “ We are very pleased that the global community is function to meet the challenges of a sustainable human front on Mars . ”
As for theBig Fucking Rocket?“This is a SpaceX - led initiative in the conceptual design phase , ” the spokesperson said . “ As it spring up , NASA may distinguish component in which we would have an interest . ”
In other words , NASA is keeping its options open but maintaining a healthy skepticism , for now . And you may hardly blame the space way . NASA has , after all , already taken Brobdingnagian gamble on SpaceX with the Commercial Crew Program , which is now at least a class behind schedule sending American spaceman to the Space Station .
Even if SpaceX ca n’t court NASA , there might be another space government agency uncoerced to indue in the billionaire ’s vision . The list of space - up to nations is grow fast , and Modern players , like Luxembourg , have already indicate their interest in supporting gamy - peril , high - reward commercial venture . And , there ’s always the hypothesis that another ambitious billionaire — say , that dude who wants to beam robotic space vehicle to Alpha Centauri — will throw some seed money in .
Optimistically , Musk says , we could be direct the first humans to Mars in a decade . In reality , SpaceX has not yet sent a unmarried human into orbital cavity or a single robotic spacecraft to Mars . Its rocket are stillblowing up occasionallyfor reasons unknown , and its CEO isnotoriously risky at meeting deadline .
It ’ll be damn exciting to watch SpaceX take its first baby whole step toward Mars . But in between the Commercial Crew Program , the Red Dragon charge , and the “ kind of like Battlestar Galactica ” vision for man ’s future are a lot of incremental steps and intermediate milestone Musk glossed over — of design , building and testing large and more advanced roquette , of inventing the technologies require to pull up resources from Mars and sustain human biography on it . seize SpaceX has good fortune and secures investors , those footstep could still take decades .
Musk is not an idiot : he get it on it ’ll take a satellite to accomplish what he outlined yesterday . The point of his speech communication was not to show us that SpaceX alone can get it all done , but to convince the globe that what SpaceX was founded to do is worth it .
And , who fuck ? perchance embed that seed right now really is the first footmark toward a million - strong dependency on Mars in 2100s . “ I have a nan who ’s 103 , ” Braun said . “ She was around when airplanes were beginning to fly , and railroad car were being preface . She ’s seen human race land on the lunation and cure countless diseases . On a hundred - year timeframe , my grandmother has seen changes just as noteworthy as what Elon talked about . ”
Correction : An early translation of this post look up to Bobby Braun as an associate degree prof , he is in fact a full professor . The text has been updated consequently .
Elon MuskMarsrocketsSpaceflightSPACEX
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